Proving profitability of static, binary options strategies?
If one were to use some fully-defined, quantitative strategy for trading, and it were to prove significantly unprofitable, doesn’t that imply that the opposite strategy would be significantly profitable? For instance, what if every week you were to buy debit spreads at a set time on a set stock aiming for a specific net debit (say whatever SPY strangle nets a debit of 0.05/contract on either side). If over time this were to net you a significant loss (more than whatever risk-free premium the market is providing at the time to account for opportunity cost of the seller’s collateral or potential spread pricing issues), would that not imply selling the same strategy would net you a significant profit? If you only lose the risk-free rate or due to spread issues obviously the inverse is not significantly profitable either. I haven’t yet found a good way to back test options strategies, hence my question.
Hi! I am hoping someone could lend some advice re how to configure the strategy tester to work with binary options style trading. In case you're not familiar with binary options, a few notes: - There is no stop loss, take profit - There are no spreads/commissions - I must set an expiry time in minutes or candles - Simply, if I go "long" (called a CALL) and the expiry price > strike price, that's a win (and < would be a loss); if I go "short" (called a PUT) AND the expiry price < strike price, that's a win (and > would be a loss). Also I could "Push", meaning the strike price = the expiry price. These should be disregarded from the calculations as there is no loss or gain of $. - As such, I just need a W/L/P (P being 'Push', meaning strike price = expiry price) Thanks! Welcome any advice. 😀
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